New report shows importance of restoring and expanding transit service post-pandemic

Six months since the COVID-19 crisis exploded in the United States, the pandemic continues to place unprecedented pressures on transit systems across the United States. Battered by historically low revenues and ridership, Bay Area transit agencies have sharply curtailed transit service across the region. A new report released today by Seamless Bay Area and the Voices for Public Transportation coalition shows how restoring and increasing transit service levels across the Bay Area will play a critical role in bringing back transit ridership after the pandemic lifts.

Our research finds that, even prior to the pandemic, the nine-county Bay Area was underserved by transit compared to similar urban areas around the world. The Toronto metropolitan area, for instance, has a similar average density as the Bay Area, after accounting for open space, and has a similar mix of densities among city center and suburban areas. Despite these similarities, Toronto sees a significantly higher level of transit ridership proportional to the population.

Operating at a level of service comparable to Toronto would enable the Bay Area to provide more access to opportunity (including employment, education, healthcare, and social activities) for a large percentage of the population, while reducing environmental and economic stress across the region. Data show that this service level would also entice new riders into the system, boosting revenues for local transit agencies that will be critical to recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

The relationship between per capita service hours and per capita ridership for twenty Bay Area systems, nine Toronto systems, seven Washington DC area systems and five Seattle area systems.

Providing a level on service on par with Toronto would require a 55% increase over the transit service level provided in the Bay Area before COVID. While this would require significant investment, attaining this level of service would have myriad benefits to the region, including reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, alleviating car traffic, and providing greater mobility for people who depend on public transportation.

Ridership strongly correlated with service hours

Comparing the Bay Area to analogous regions, the report shows a close correlation between the amount of transit service provided (per capita service hours), and the amount of ridership proportional to the population. When service levels are higher - more frequent service, and more hours of the week - more people use transit. 

Methods of comparison

The report uses two methodologies and seven alternatives to develop benchmarks for service levels. The first focuses on per capita revenue hours. The second develops a set of principles and standards to determine where existing transit service (pre-COVID) fails to meet that standard. 

We used metropolitan areas in Canada for comparison because the six largest Canadian metropolitan areas - with similar cultural, economic, and urban characteristics - have a higher level of ridership proportional to the population than the Bay Area.

While the Bay Area is second only to New York in transit ridership per population in the US, other recent research shows that there are multiple metropolitan areas around the world that have higher ridership, in regions with a mix of population densities. 

Estimate Method

A new report released today by Seamless Bay Area and the Voices for Public Transportation coalition attempts to quantify the amount of transit service that should be provided in the Bay Area in order to restore and grow transit ridership, to provide robust service in line with that provided by peer metropolitan areas around the world, and to achieve our region’s long-range environmental goals.

Toronto as a model

Based on our analysis, we recommend that the Bay Area strive for a level of service on parity with Toronto, which would represent a 55% increase over the service level in the Bay Area before COVID. Toronto has a similar average density after accounting for open space, and has a similar mix of densities among city center and suburban areas, but provides higher transit ridership, in part because of its higher service level.

Essential but not sufficient for ridership, climate and equity

Restoring public transportation will be essential to help the economy recover from the impacts of COVID. But this report shows that returning to the pre-COVID status quo will not be enough to achieve the region’s transportation and environmental goals.

Achieving robust transit service and ridership on par with peer metropolitan areas will require not only additional service hours, but also integrated fare policy, infrastructure improvements to support walking, bicycling, and other means of getting to stations without driving, and land use with better support for transit, more density, and a greater mix of uses. Providing a much higher level of overall transit service is an essential foundation for these improvements, and a critical step toward achieving higher ridership and reducing driving miles across the region over the long-term.

Author and review team

The report is authored by Ron Kilcoyne, an experienced former transit agency General Manager with a professional specialty at increasing transit ridership, especially in suburban bus systems. 

Voices for Public Transportation is a vibrant coalition of 35 groups representing transit rider and worker unions, community organizing groups, transportation policy and equity advocates, and central labor councils across the nine-county Bay Area. VPT is dedicated to achieving a Green New Deal for Transportation in the Bay Area. 

Seamless Bay Area is a founding member of the VPT coalition, seeks to create an integrated, world-class, accessible, and equitable transit system through building a grassroots movement for change of and pursuing structural policy reforms to transit governance.

The review team includes Peter Straus of San Francisco Transit Riders, Bob Allen of Urban Habitat, Ian Griffiths and Adina Levin of Seamless Bay Area, Chris Lepe of TransForm, Richard Marcantonio of Public Advocates, and Vinita Goyal of Silicon Valley Community Foundation.