Convenience and affordability improvements of Clipper 2 delayed
After three years, riders are still waiting for free transfers, thanks to the latest Clipper delay. It didn’t have to be this way.
The deferred promise of free and reduced priced transfers
Transfer from Muni to SamTrans, and pay for one bus trip.
Ride BART, and hop on a connecting bus for no extra charge.
Take a bus and transfer to Caltrain, get full fare credit for the bus fare you already paid.
This is the promise of free and reduced priced transfers - don’t make riders pay twice if they are switching agencies. Sadly, it is also an experience that riders will now have to wait even longer for.
The rollout of Clipper 2.0, with “tap to pay,” free transfers, and a platform for more improvements to convenience and affordability, is slated to start in April of 2025, and will continue through the Summer.
The “tap to pay” feature, enabling payment with credit/debit cards, will be available immediately, while other improvements including free/reduced price transfers will roll out incrementally over several months in 2025.
The next update to the schedule is slated to be announced in December following system integration testing.
Repeated delays
Even though the Bay Area’s major transit agency general managers agreed three years ago to support the concept of free and reduced priced transfers, which was identified as one of the top ridership recovery strategies by MTC’s Blue Ribbon Transit Recovery Task Force, riders found out last month they will have to wait at least another six months to receive these discounts.
That’s because the free and reduced priced transfers pilot, which is fully funded, is being introduced as part of the rollout of Clipper 2.0, an upgrade to the current fare payment system being overseen by MTC with technology vendor Cubic. In the fall of 2022 it was announced the upgrade would be delayed until Summer/Fall 2024. Then, in the September 2024 meeting, the Clipper Executive Board (transit general managers) got the first public announcement of the new 2025 timeline - meaning that the fare promotion policy intended to rebuild ridership will launch more than five full years after the onset of the pandemic.
The delay to the Clipper 2 rollout hampers a critical opportunity to grow transit ridership and improve customer satisfaction, at a time when the perception of public transit among leaders and the public is crucial to funding support needed to sustain and improve the transit system.
Communication and rollout planning are critical for a successful upgrade
Thoughtful rollout planning and a massive communications effort will be needed for the rollout to go smoothly and reduce customer confusion. That’s because there are millions of Clipper cards, but only a few hundred thousand can be upgraded per month.
So in the first months, some customers will have a different experience - and different pricing - than others. And it’s possible that in the interim some agencies will have different pricing - for example, riders would get a free transfer between Agency A and Agency B, but still have to pay a second fare when transferring to Agency C. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission which manages the project, has not yet decided how the incremental rollout will proceed.
Clear communications is absolutely essential for a smooth rollout leading to customer satisfaction and a good public perception rather than confusion.
Cubic and network management challenges
The Clipper 2 project is managed by MTC staff, with guidance from transit agency executives. This diffuse accountability contributes to lack of clarity around the project timeline and strong management to get the project back on track.
A comparison with how the Caltrain electrification project was brought back on track indicates the value of a single strong authority over complex projects - and adds to our case for an empowered regional network manager.
The Bay Area is one of a number of metropolitan areas impacted by delays to projects from the technology vendor Cubic, following the 2021 purchase of Cubic by a private equity firm and hedge fund.
Delays to major projects are unfortunately not new in the public or in private sectors. However, there can be a significant difference in how delays are handled. The challenges in managing this project to a timely conclusion stems from relatively weak network management.
In a recent example of recovery, the $2 billion Caltrain electrification project had run into major delays. In response, the executives of the contractors came to the US to face the board - and major changes were made to the project teams at Caltrain and the contractor. The schedule was overhauled in exhaustive detail, with a new detailed schedule showing granular milestones with specific delivery dates (see this example from June, 2023), and detailed information about risks and actions to mitigate the risks.
By contrast, the latest Clipper 2 schedule has schedule timelines spread across multiple months with no detail about specific milestones and less information about risks.
The Clipper 2 project is managed by a consortium of the MTC and transit agency executives. MTC’s network management function is very slowly increasing its customer communication role. Transit agencies, with much-needed ridership growth hampered by the delays, are at least publicly deferential to MTC and the cluster of peer agencies.
The current network management structure was set up in 2023 (see chart below) with an intention to review and evolve over time, with potential revisions in 2026 after gathering data in 2024 and 2025 (see timeline from May 2024).
The vague communication and diffuse accountability around mission-critical delays to the Clipper 2.0 system suggests a need for stronger management and accountability ASAP.
As the region looks toward transformation, and a future where it doesn’t take more than three years to make an agreed universal fare policy change, the current delay of Clipper underscores the importance of an empowered regional network manager with clear authority to manage its projects.