BART polls regional transportation funding - signature-gathering initiative likely needed

BART conducted  polling to assess the viability of a potential five-county measure (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara) generating operating funds for BART and other transit services.

BART polled a sales tax and a parcel tax. The sales tax polled over 50% but well below the two-thirds margin currently needed to pass a transit funding ballot measure. This implies that a signature-gathering campaign would be absolutely needed, which can pass with a 50%+1 threshold.

With regard to the parcel tax, BART polled only on a flat rate parcel tax of $524 per parcel. It would be useful to assess the “per square foot” option being considered by MTC and SFMTA/other operators.

Very interestingly, support was similar among the counties served by BART. All were under the two thirds margin, with San Francisco polling the highest. The two counties served by BART that are not governed by the BART Board polled similarly to the BART counties overall.

The weakest polling was seen in Contra Costa County, which polled below the 50% threshold. This implies that a strategy to have every county put on separate measures would have a very hard time succeeding. If Contra Costa had to go it alone and failed, that would break BART’s budget and service.

Also interestingly, messaging to prevent station closures and cuts did better than messaging to improve service.

Also, BART’s data helps advocates combat the talking points of transit opponents. While only about 20% of respondents use transit weekly, about three quarters of respondents use transit at least some of the time. Over time, Bay Area residents have said they would like to use transit more often and want a system that enables them to do so.