Saving transit service: Transit agency fiscal cliff comes into sharper focus
New information from transit agencies and MTC is bringing into sharper focus the crisis that is looming as federal relief funding runs out while ridership is slower to recover.
To put the picture together for the region, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission recently asked agencies to report on a range of budget scenarios, reflecting different levels of ridership recovery and different levels of recovery of revenue sources in addition to fares. In response, MTC and agencies reported a total revenue shortfall of around $3B over the next 5 years.
Agencies that provide regional service with budgets dependent on fares such as BART, Caltrain and WETA (ferries) are among the hardest hit.
As reported at its board meeting on January 26, BART now expects its fiscal cliff to hit as soon as January 2025. According to MTC’s analysis, BART would only be able to provide 22% of pre-pandemic service hours in the scenario with slow ridership recovery. This could lead to drastic service cuts such as no weekend service, hourly service during the week, and shuttered stations.
The SFMTA expects its fiscal cliff to hit in FY25, with ridership around 55% of pre-pandemic levels with downtown office vacancy rates reported at 27% in 2022. Ridership patterns have changed, with downtown-serving routes seeing less ridership and some crosstown routes crowded.
SFMTA has a unique revenue mix with funding from the city budget and parking in addition to fares and other public funding. Its budget gap is driven by slow ridership regrowth and stagnant revenues from the city and parking.
Caltrain’s news got slightly less dire at the end of January. Its fiscal cliff was deferred until around 2025, when the State of California provided the funding needed to complete electrification. If this funding hadn’t come through, Caltrain would be facing deficits and potential service cuts this year.
AC Transit expects its fiscal cliff to hit in FY 2025, with deficits totaling 114M over 3 years.
While region-wide ridership has recovered roughly 55% of pre-pandemic ridership, across operators, recovery ranges from 30% to 80%.
MTC, agencies, and advocates including Seamless Bay Area are not sitting still waiting for disaster. We’re participating in a regionwide coalition seeking state funding to avert the impending fiscal cliff, pursuing fare integration and other strategies to improve rider experience and regrow ridership, and laying the groundwork for a regional funding measure to support frequent, well-integrated service.
You can join the campaign. If you haven’t yet, sign this petition supporting funding to avert service cuts. Call your state legislators before important hearings on February 27. And we’ll keep you posted on future opportunities to take action.